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Highway Headlines ...
I-15 TRAFFIC OFF 8% IN FEBRUARY
RADIO HOLDS THE AUDIENCE
THE NEW FIGHT FOR MARKET SHARE |
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TRAFFIC REPORT - FEBRUARY 2008
I-15 at California/Nevada Stateline (Primm, Nevada)
Year-to-date (YTD) traffic at Stateline/Primm was off 2.4% through February, as reported by the Monthly Volume Calendar from Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT). For the first time since 2005, the February count dropped below a million, as 991,000 vehicles crossed State Line in both directions. The NDOT reports Average Daily Traffic down 8.7% and Weekday Traffic off 8.2%, Weekend Traffic down 10.3%. There is doubt, however, that traffic off. Looking at the statewide report there are few counts outside of metropolitan areas that didn't show decreases in traffic flow.
For the President's Day holiday, northbound traffic into Las Vegas on the 15th and 16th was off 16% from last year and return traffic on Sunday, the 17th, was off 15%. For the other three Friday/Saturday weekends, northbound counts on Friday the 1st and Saturday, the 2nd, were down 3%; for the 8th and 9th down 10% and the 22nd and 23rd down 13%.
An interesting footnote to this drop in traffic comes from businesses along I-15. Calico Ghost Town, celebrating Civil War Days over the President's Day holiday "had the best business they've ever had". Other businesses along the highway said "there's no bad economy on the highway". Tanger Mall, outside of Barstow, reports that it is the best year they've had year-to-date. Twenty percent of all the traffic on I-15 goes beyond Las Vegas, so some of the decline at State Line may be a drop in long distance travel based on traffic at the California/Arizona line. The Travel Industry of America is reporting a return to the pattern of people
taking shorter vacations within 300 miles of their homes rather than going to Europe or Mexico or other distant destinations.
Laughlin, Nevada (SR163, Davis Dam Road) and U.S. 95 (Searchlight, .5 miles north of SR 164, Nipton Road)
The NDOT reports that Average Daily Traffic on this stretch of highway that leads into Laughlin from US 95 in February was off 6%, Weekday off 6.3% and Weekend down 6.2%. This drop in traffic does not seem to be having much of an impact on gaming win on the river. (See Gaming Report.)
Mesquite, Nevada (200 feet north of the East Mesquite interchange)
The NDOT counter here is north of the Mesquite hotel/casinos, but the pattern of declining traffic holds here, with Average Daily Traffic off 4.8%, Weekday down 4.7% and Weekend down 6.4%.
Like the other NDOT counters, this system measures both northbound and southbound and is located right at the state line. Because of this it is impossible whether this is a drop in long distance travelers going through Mesquite, or a decline in southbound traffic since Mesquite, to some degree, relies on patrons traveling south from Utah.
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GAMING REVENUE REPORT - JANUARY 2008 Snowbirds flocked into Laughlin in January, boosting gaming win 10.9%. This double digit increase is heartening in view of last year's record of five declining months and six single-digit monthly increases. Total win in the trailing twelve months is still off .5% and market share (percentage of statewide gaming win) slipped to 4.9% from 5.1% last year.
The other venues in Clark County all showed declines with the Strip win off 1.3% but share climbed to 56.2% from 54.2% last year and the Strip is up 2.3% in the trailing twelve months. Downtown win was off 6.7% but share held within one-tenth of a point of last year at 4.8% vs 4.9% last January. Clark County win was off 4% and win in the tracking twelve months is up 1.9% with share at 87.3% from 87.6% last year. Statewide win was down 4.7%.
RADIO IS RESILIENT In the nine years since 1998, when Napster first was introduced into the consumer consciousness, traditional radio has been challenged by new competitive conditions. However, the number of people listening to radio has changed little, from 96.4% persons 12+ in 1998 to 93.9% of persons 12+ throughout 2007, according to a study done in May 2007 by Bridge Ratings LLC. This analysis shows that traditional radio is more resilient than the press would have many believe.
The terrestrial radio's market penetration remains at 93.7% versus cell phones at 78.3%, MP3 players at 30%, internet radio 21%, satellite radio 4.8%.
LAS VEGAS HOTELS REPORT SHIFTS IN CUSTOMER BOOKINGS Las Vegas hotels are now reporting a marked increase in "walk-ins" - that is people showing up at the front desk without reservations. Several hotels have said that walk-ins are "now a significant portion of occupancy". At the same time long-term or advanced bookings have decreased. The climate is more like the days post 9/11 when occupancy was low and travelers knew that they could drive to Las Vegas on an impulse and get a reservation without any trouble.
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McCARRAN AIRPORT REPORT- JANUARY 2008 January traffic through Las Vegas McCarran Airport showed a drop of 2.8% or 100,000 arriving and departing passengers. Virtually all of this decrease was attributed to U.S. Airways who has cut their schedule back materially. (See story below.)
In January 89% of all the passengers going through McCarran used scheduled airlines through Terminal #1, charter, commuter and other scheduled airlines through Terminal #2 and the other terminals represent the other 11% of total passengers. Sixty percent of all the arriving and departing passengers through McCarran are carried by the top five scheduled airlines. The leader continues to be Southwest, carrying 1.2 million passengers in January for a 2.3% increase; U.S Airways at 630,000 passengers was off 23%. (See story below.) United at 225,000 passengers was off 8.3%; Delta showed a 6.6% increase with a count of 197,000. The bottom of the top five,
American Airlines at 167,000, was off 3.3% from January of last year.
U.S. AIRWAYS LEAVING LAS VEGAS
U.S. Airways is cutting flights on a popular midnight hub out of Las Vegas McCarran Airport, as reported in the Wall Street Journal. "High oil prices have prompted U.S. Airways to cut about 30% of its overnight flights in Las Vegas, trimming the schedule primarily on off-peak days (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday). Flights to nine cities are being suspended, including Cleveland, Raleigh and Denver. Miami ends April 5th, El Paso, TX late-night flight will be suspended May 3rd. U.S. Airways President, Scott Kirby, said, "Flights that make sense at even $85 for oil are not making sense today."
As oil prices climb airlines are inclined to eliminate domestic flights. Cuts will be seen in smaller towns with fewer flights, late nights and early mornings. This will mean airlines passengers crowding into fewer flights at higher prices.
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| THE DANGERS IN DIGITAL
The trade magazine, Advertising Age, devoted an entire March 17th issue to digital. One of the most cogent comments came from an interview with website designer Jakob Nielsen who works for the Art Bin. Nielsen is a specialist in user behavior. He worked for Sun Micro Systems and now consults with Fortune 1000 companies on corporate websites. Nielsen made the following comment: "The basic point about the web is that it is not an advertising medium. The web is not a selling medium; it is a buying medium. It is user controlled so the user controls the user experience." Nielsen went on to say, "Skepticism about web advertising, based on
eye-tracking studies, demonstrating that "banner blindness" which describes the tendency to ignore content-whether ads or non-commercial information - contained in banners on web sites." Other points in the article said that if effectiveness is based on click-through, the rates are not reliable because a large percentage of clicking is done by small segments of less than desirable consumers who don't boast big incomes. |
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NATIVE AMERICAN CASINOS BEGIN TO ADD SLOT MACHINES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Native American casinos have begun to add more slot machines to their properties following the successful passage of Propositions 94, 95, 96 and 97. These propositions allow the addition of up of 17,000 slot machines by 2030.
Under the new compacts the Agua Caliente Casino in Rancho Mirage is allowed 3,500 slot machines. They had added 350 machines by February 12th and they are reconfiguring a room to add a couple of hundred more machines in the next few months.
The Sycuan Indian Band casino in El Cajon does not expect to add the 3,000 machines it is allowed. Based on market conditions, it intends to add a thousand new machines but could attempt to build another casino in the state and use the balance there.
The Morongo Casino in Cabazon, is allowed to add 5,000 machines and they began operating an additional 150 machines on February 6th and planned to add 400 machines by February 10th. By the end of February the trip expects to operate 2,800 to 3,000 machines and 500 at its original bingo hall on the Morongo Reservation. Generally speaking, Indian casinos have attracted a low-end player, but the impact on both Las Vegas slot play and table games is yet to be seen.
THE BATTLE FOR MARKET SHARE With the departure of 27 Rite-Aid Drugstores in Las Vegas, other pharmacies are aggressively going after Rite-Aid to increase their own market share. Mike DeAngelis, a spokesman for CVS Pharmacies said, "Any pharmacy in the market would be interested in getting customers from a competitor".
In an article in the March 10th Business Press, Jerry Mozian, of Tatum, the largest executive service firm in the U.S., comments that, "...leaders must monitor trends and understand why a customer sees a greater value in a competitors offering. Loss of market share can signal ineffective marketing, improper pricing or product development failure."
BRIEFING OBSERVATION: The best way to lose market share is to have your brand disappear in the minds of consumers and top of the mind awareness is key. The danger from cutting back in promotion and advertising efforts ultimately will be the loss of market share. Recovering market share as the market goes back up can be very expensive.
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MOBILTRAK NOW OPERATIVE NEAR MOUNTAIN PASS
The second unit of the MobilTrak system has been installed on I-15 between Baker and Mountain Pass and is now operable. These devices measure radio listening by recording the frequency being used by listeners as they pass the unit. Complete reports on day-part listening, both at Yermo and north of Baker, are now available. Call you Highway Radio sales executive for the complete breakdown by day-part.
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IMPROVEMENTS CONTINUE ON I-15 CalTrans has announced a project to rehabilitate pavement and add a truck descending lane on the northbound I-15 one mile south of Bailey Road to Yates Wells Road near Nevada State Line. The project includes drainage upgrades and median widening.
In Victorville the I-15/Mojave Drive interchange, with two lanes in each direction on Mojave Drive and signalized ramps, will be completed in the spring of 2009.
Interstate 15 Constructions Improvements Committee, composed of representatives of the California and Nevada Departments of Transportation, the Las Vegas Visitors and Convention Authority and Tim Anderson, General Manager for Highway Radio, meet monthly to review projects in the I-15/I-40 corridor.
| TOURISM TO SHOW SMALL INCREASE IN 2008 Domestic leisure trips this year are projected to rise 2% over 2007 according to Travel Industry Association of America. Business trips are expected to be flat, rising only 0.4%. | |
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| NEVADA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEBRUARY 2008 TRAFFIC SUMMARY |
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AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC1 |
WEEKDAY 2 |
WEEKEND 3 |
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I-15 NEV/CA STATELINE
(PRIMM, NEVADA) |
-8.8% |
-8.2% |
-10% |
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I-15 MESQUITE |
-4.7 |
-4.7% |
-6.5% |
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SR 163 LAUGHLIN - Davis Dam Rd. |
-6.1% |
-6.3% |
-6.3% |
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US 95 AT SEARCHLIGHT
(SR 164) |
-4.1% |
-4% |
-5.4% |
1. Percentage increase (decrease) in average daily traffic northbound and southbound divided by the total number of days of the month.
2. Percentage increase (decrease) in total traffic northbound and southbound Monday through Thursday divided by the number of days of the month.
3. Percentage increase (decrease) in total traffic northbound and southbound for Saturday and Sunday divided by the number of days of the month |
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